Photo: Andrew Redington/Getty Images

Projected Tiger Woods finish from advanced computer model

by CBS Sports Staff

Several of the world’s top golfers will converge on Torrey Pines Golf Course this week for the 2019 Farmers Insurance Open. Play starts on Thursday, with action extending through the weekend. Jon Rahm, who won this event by three strokes two years ago, is the Vegas favorite in the 2019 Farmers Insurance Open odds, going off at 10-1. But a loaded 2019 Farmers Insurance Open field that includes big names like Tiger Woods (14-1), Justin Rose (14-1) and Rory McIlroy (12-1) will all be in hot pursuit. The entire golf community will be tuned in, so before locking in any 2019 Farmers Insurance Open picks of your own or trying your hand at a PGA DFS tournament on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings, be sure to see the latest PGA predictions from the team at SportsLine.

SportsLine’s prediction model, which was built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has nailed four of the past eight majors entering the weekend and called Tiger Woods’ deep run in the PGA Championship despite being a 25-1 long shot. The model has also been spot-on early in the 2018-19 PGA Tour season. It was all over Rahm (12-1) at the 2018 Hero World Challenge, projecting him as a top contender from the start. It also correctly predicted Brooks Koepka’s (9-1) victory at the 2018 CJ Cup earlier this season. Anyone who has followed the model is up big.

Now that the field for the Farmers Insurance 2019 is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. One huge shocker the model is calling for: Woods, an eight-time winner at Torrey Pines and one of the top Vegas favorites, stumbles this week and doesn’t even sniff the top 10.

Woods is making his 2019 PGA Tour debut this week at Torrey Pines, a course where he has won on eight different occasions, including the 2008 U.S. Open. The seven-time Farmers Insurance Open champion enters this week’s PGA Tour event as the No. 13 golfer in the Official World Golf Rankings after an extremely successful 2018 campaign that saw him record seven top-10 finishes, including his 80th career PGA Tour victory at the Tour Championship.

However, Woods’ last Farmers Insurance Open victory came all the way back in 2013. He also finished last season ranked 82nd in greens in regulation percentage (67.40) and 127th in driving accuracy percentage (59.35), which could cause trouble this week at Torrey Pines. He’s not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in this loaded Farmers Insurance Open field than the 14-1 premium he’s commanding.

Leishman is playing as well as anyone on the PGA Tour right now. He earned his fourth career PGA victory earlier this season at the CIMB Classic after shooting 26-under par. He also finished in the top 10 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and Sony Open. Those results have catapulted Leishman into third place in the FedEx Cup standings and he enters this week’s tournament with an Official World Golf Ranking of No. 16.

At this event last year, Leishman fired three rounds under par on his way to a score of six-under and an eighth place finish. Leishman’s consistent play this season also has him ranked in the top 10 on the PGA Tour in scoring average (69.367) and birdie average (5.38), which will allow him to climb the Farmers Insurance Open leaderboard quickly,

Also, the model says four additional golfers with 2019 Farmers Insurance Open odds of 20-1 or longer make a strong run at the title. Anyone who bets on these underdogs could hit it big.

So who wins the 2019 Farmers Insurance Open? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full Farmers Insurance Open projected leaderboard from the model that nailed the winners of four golf majors.

Jon Rahm 10-1
Rory McIlroy 12-1
Jason Day 14-1
Justin Rose 14-1
Tiger Woods 14-1
Tony Finau 18-1
Marc Leishman 20-1
Xander Schauffele 20-1
Patrick Cantlay 25-1
Rickie Fowler 25-1
Charles Howell III 28-1
Gary Woodland 28-1
Jordan Spieth 33-1

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